PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Milton Pummels Florida, the Second Major Hurricane to Strike the State in Two Weeks

Hurricane Milton made landfall Wednesday near Tampa,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Florida, threatening the major metro area as the latest disaster to strike the American South, which still was reeling from Hurricane Helene. 

“This is the storm of the century,” said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, during a public briefing that included other local and federal officials. “This is a life and death situation.”

Milton came ashore as a dangerous Category 3 storm some 67 miles south of Tampa near beachy Siesta Key, packing winds close to 100 miles an hour. 

It followed fast on the heels of Helene, which carved a vast swath of destruction from southwest Florida to western North Carolina. The Federal Emergency Management Agency continued to coordinate the recovery from Helene even as its staff braced for Milton. FEMA said more than $286 million in federal assistance has been provided for Helene survivors, and that more than 16.2 million meals, 13.9 million liters of water, 210 generators and more than 505,000 tarps have been shipped to the region. In North Carolina, more than 3,200 survivors have been rescued.

Milton came a mere 13 days after Helene hit northwest Florida as a Category 4 storm. Helene’s storm surge flooded coastal communities from southwest Florida to the Panhandle, and residents raced ahead of Milton to secure the soaked furniture and other debris piled in front of their homes, so that Milton’s winds would not propel the detritus through the air, causing more damage. Solid waste facilities extended hours before Milton arrived so residents could dispose of as much of the debris as possible, but in many neighborhoods large piles remained.

This was the first time two major hurricanes made landfall in Florida in such quick succession, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. The shortest duration between major hurricanes striking Florida had been 42.5 days between Easy and King in 1950. Many Floridians remember Charley and Jeanne, which hit the peninsula in 2004 only 43.3 days apart. Ivan struck southern Alabama a little less than 10 days before Jeanne.

The last hurricane to make landfall within 50 miles of Tampa was Gladys in 1968, Klotzbach said.

“We’ve never had this kind of double-whammy for our Tampa Bay neighbors,” said U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa). “For those of us who have grown up here across the Tampa Bay area, this is the most serious storm we have ever seen.”

The Fifth National Climate Assessment warned that the risk is increasing for two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously or one right after the other. The 2023 report said the compound events can lead to cascading impacts that combine to cause greater harm than individual events would. The federal report, mandated by Congress, provides the most comprehensive look at the state of climate change across the country.

A study released this week by U.S. and European scientists suggested that climate change worsened Helene’s peak rain totals by 10 percent. Some experts think that’s understating matters.

“The needs and resources, they are not just adding up,” said Astrid Caldas, senior climate scientist for community resilience at the Union for Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group. “They increase exponentially because the impacts are one on top of the other, and what would cost $10,000 to fix, when it gets hit again it may cost $50,000.” 

The Tampa metro area is one of the largest in the country, with some 3 million residents. Widespread evacuations ahead of Milton led to gridlock on the region’s highways earlier in the week, and state officials opened some highway shoulders to accommodate the traffic.

Milton’s impact is poised to extend across the state. Forecasts suggest the storm will retain hurricane strength as it swirls over Florida’s midsection before leaving the peninsula for the Atlantic Ocean by Thursday evening. From Orlando east to Daytona Beach, schools and businesses closed, and residents stocked up on sand bags and secured their homes.

Milton exploded over the Gulf of Mexico’s unusually warm water, undergoing a process of rapid intensification that is becoming more common because of climate change. The hurricane reached Category 5 strength twice, with winds topping out near 180 miles an hour and a barometric pressure dropping as low as 897 millibars, making the storm the second-strongest on record in the Gulf. Rita in 2005 was the strongest, with a barometric pressure of 895 millibars. Wind shear caused Milton to lose some of its strength as it neared the coast.

“I don’t have the warm fuzzies about this storm,” Klotzbach said before Milton made landfall. “It’s a doozy.”  

Forecasters warned of devastating winds, a life-threatening storm surge and heavy rainfall in Florida. Storm surge was predicted on both coasts, as high as 13 feet in the area where Milton made landfall. Along the St. Johns River, the state’s longest river, which flows from central Florida north through Jacksonville and into the Atlantic, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet was expected. Up to 18 inches of rain was forecast in some areas, raising fears of catastrophic flash floods and urban flooding. Floridians also braced for prolonged power outages, and tornadoes were possible. Gov. Ron DeSantis declared states of emergency for 51 of the state’s 67 counties.

On Oct. 2, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that FEMA did not have enough funding to get through the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. As of Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, had no plans to reconvene the House of Representatives to approve additional funds. 

Craig Fugate, former FEMA administrator under the Obama administration and former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said this week that the federal emergency response system would be prepared for the dual hurricanes.

“FEMA is built for this,” he said. “Rarely do you get one disaster at a time.”

He urged donors to give to volunteer organizations, which he said were in dire need.

“They are going to need people to reach deep,” he said.